-- 作者： 文人 -- 發表時間： 2004/12/04 00:22pm [這篇文章最後由文人在 2004/12/06 04:00pm 第 2 次編輯] This is a dry topic for someone who is interested in using bond yield as a market prediction tool. This link is the basic bond yield introduction tutorial: http://www.investopedia.com/articles/bonds/ These are kind of like "甲木乙木丙火...".  If you don't know them, you are a fool.  Even if you do, you are still no body. This link is more interesting. http://www.smartmoney.com/onebond/index.cfm?story=yieldcurve You should know it by now that all professional bond traders (sometime stock market traders) wear a yield curve visor to look into the future to formulate their trading strategy.  This link show three interesting issues: 1) an introduction on different kinds of yield curves; 2) an example of stock market and GDP reaction from a given shape of yield curve. 3) an applet to replay the shapes of US yield curve from 1970s. This link is even better: http://moneycentral.msn.com/articles/invest/prepare/1274.asp Basically, you should know the follow by now: yield curve --> economic performance (GDP growth) --> interest rate movement (from whatever economic theory/Greenspan thinking) --> bond/stock market movement --> trading strategy. The above link skip the introduction of delta and epsilon or limit in calculus and tell you the formula directly                           d(X^n)/dy = n X ^ (n+1).   Yield Curve --> Strategy.   There are many jardons and unexplained items.  But who would care anyway. If you want to get the latest up-to-date info.  You could try this link: http://www.pimco.com/ Read the Bill Gross monthly article; however, he usual give a nonrelevant small talk at the beginning and use many jargons and big words in his bond movement discussion. There is also a yield curve introduction from PIMCO. http://www.pimco.com/LeftNav/Latest+Publications/2004/yield_curve_basics.htm -- 作者： 龍兔豬 -- 發表時間： 2004/12/05 03:05pm Professional !! -- 作者： 0to1 -- 發表時間： 2004/12/05 03:38pm 有無你的實戰心得分享下啊!!!!!!!!!!!! -- 作者： jason -- 發表時間： 2004/12/06 00:02am 在投資世界中,Yield Curve o既些微變動都會影響全球o既投資環境, Yield Curve 既重要,但又容易為投資者所忽略..... 因要明白或去解釋Yield Curve,可能需要很strong既基本經濟學知識和邏輯思維.... 所以....我都很希望文人兄如有任何見解,不妨與大家分享一下。 -- 作者： 文人 -- 發表時間： 2004/12/06 04:23pm Yield Curve -> strategy At I have say in the first post, this is something along the line: If you do not know, you are a fool.  Therefore, I try to find out what the yield curve means to avoid being a fool.  However, I have not integrate this theory into my investment.  Therefore, I have very little experience to share in this area. Just somethings to note: 1) Some trader does use this theory to formulate some macro trading strategy. 2) This is a must for bond trader or bond fund manager.  However, the minimum capital is US$10 Million for an effective strategy trading. 3) I keep this knowledge in my mind because there exists some risk-free arbitrage stratedies by using yield curve analysis.  However, I have not figure them out yet.  The most commonly used strategy has been exposed in LTCM story. I may share my view on investment in other posts later.