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There is one more angle to look at the market. Here is what Bill Gross says:8
http://www.pimco.com/LeftNav/Late+Breaking+Commentary/IO/2004/IO+December+2004.htm~m.
©緣生術數研究社 -- 術數研究 =
In summary:f7t
Dollar depreciation now, and Chinese Yuan revaluation as soon as possible is the easiest first step to rebalance an imbalanced U.S./global economy. Dirty float” is and likely will remain synonymous with Japanese forex policy.S%<
©緣生術數研究社 -- 術數研究 ^P
For US Bond investors, his recommandations are:(5
1) As long as the Euro strengthens against the dollar, there is reason to favor German Bunds instead of U.S. Treasuries. I would only be leery of Bunds when and if China revalues.q4uO
2) Buy TIPS.m-%
3) Be careful with U.S. Treasuries. A deteriorating balance of payments deficit may actually have a positive effect leading to lower interest rates until a large creditor turns tail.nu
©緣生術數研究社 -- 術數研究 pcbPI
------------YJ5
The above is only useful for US bond investors. If you believe in HK peg, you are welcomed to follow. A highly sepeculative bet is to buy long U.S. Treasuries and sell it right before the change of trend.L
©緣生術數研究社 -- 術數研究 (Nl
If you would go to read the actual porfolio of the China and Japan central Banks, you will find that Japan has been buying US Treasuries only and its size is growing forever. On the other hands, China net balance on US Treasuries is flat for the last year even its is accumulating US trade surplus. China is channelling the excess to MBS. That means the Chinese do realize the long-term implication of US trade deflicit. They are diversifying. They know Yuen will float, just like Us drop again Yen in 80s. It is not IF but a matter of WHEN. They are planning their move and They will change the ped of Yuen some time in the future. They will anticipate the effect of their move. All that means that they may switch move asset to other currencies. Thus, you can work out a strategy from its implications too. /}?iF
©緣生術數研究社 -- 術數研究 ZNf_
My opinion is that China would have started a process to move away from US peg gradually if Greenspan and Snow had not talked down the dollow in the last few month. Therefore, a fix deposite in RMB is not a bad idea.gPXt
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2004/12/25 11:04am 
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