-- 作者： 文人 -- 發表時間： 2005/03/25 10:29pm http://www.nytimes.com/2005/03/25/business/25boom.html? 米國地產將會爆煲? At 1929, the stock crash leads to tightening of the interest rate (poor monetary policy by the government at that time) leads to real estate collapse, lost of liquidity in money.  Further leads to collapse of price beame prolong recession aka The Depression. All other major stock market crashes, Oil crises and hyper-inflation in 70's, Black Friday in 87, and Interent bubble in 2000, do not involved real estate collapse.  HK  had a real estate collapse after asian financial crisis.  Every one has a first hand knowledge of the impact of the real estate crash. US bubble is likely to pop by "coincidental events" of rising interest rate, decline of US dollar, China. change of  currency peg.  The safest  things to do are: 1) sell the house for profit if you own a US house/apartment/condo. 2) do not  hold Fanie Mae nor Fredie Mac Mortgage bonds. 3) do not hold Fanie Mae nor Fredie Mac  stock neither. 4) avoid US REIT fund 5) hold RMB term-deposite. -- 作者： rainbow -- 發表時間： 2005/03/25 11:21pm [Hidden Post: Rating 0] （您沒有權限看這篇文章，您的威望至少需要 0） -- 作者： rainbow -- 發表時間： 2005/03/26 00:03pm [Hidden Post: Rating 0] （您沒有權限看這篇文章，您的威望至少需要 0） -- 作者： rainbow -- 發表時間： 2005/04/03 09:18am [Hidden Post: Rating 0] （您沒有權限看這篇文章，您的威望至少需要 0） -- 作者： rainbow -- 發表時間： 2005/04/03 09:30am [Hidden Post: Rating 0] （您沒有權限看這篇文章，您的威望至少需要 0） -- 作者： 文人 -- 發表時間： 2005/04/03 03:28pm http://www.pimco.com/LeftNav/Late+Breaking+Commentary/IO/2005/IO_Jan_05.htm "...Since the primary global economic problem is a lack of what is known as aggregate demand, central banks everywhere will continue to remedy the affliction by keeping real short rates low.  Low short yields help stimulate demand by creating gradually rising inflation, and nurturing capital gains in equity, real estate, (and yes) bond markets.  In addition, the highly levered U.S. consumer and their main conduit – [b]mortgage debt [/b]– require low short rates just to keep their heads above water.  Thirdly, with the Fed now implicitly on board in support of adjusting our balance of payments deficit via a depreciating currency (and a reduced deficit), low real short rates are the monetary policy tool of necessity. ..." -- 作者： 文人 -- 發表時間： 2005/04/03 03:29pm http://www.economist.com/finance/displayStory.cfm?story_id=3722894 [b] Still want to buy? [/b] There are just too many articles on the house buble in the newspaper. -- 作者： 文人 -- 發表時間： 2005/04/03 09:04pm http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-afford3apr03,0,4296610.story?coll=la-home-headlines -- 作者： rainbow -- 發表時間： 2005/04/04 02:25am 我沒有鼓勵人買(buy)地產, 個人因素較重要 - 例如某人不打算長期住某地方, 租屋較合理. 是美國政府鼓勵美國人自置物業安居 (不是炒, 不是投機那一種). 你的 gratuitious, one-size-fits-all, "因為 Real Estate Bubble is Imminent" 而要賣(sell) house/condo/co-op etc 是頗幼稚原因. 去建議他人賣(sell) 地產, 有點不負責任. 雜誌, 報紙的文章不能 taken literally, 因為媒體個人意見不一定適合每個人.  文章的意見只能作參考, 比較 - 記者的意見不是財務聖經, 否則這一班媒體記者一早已發達, 還要做打工嗎? 外國人買美國地產有他們私人理由, 他們現金交易, 可以肯定地產有support. -- 作者： 文人 -- 發表時間： 2005/04/04 07:01pm http://www.genre.com/sharedfile/pdf/ReflectionsMarch2005.pdf