-- 作者： tkm -- 發表時間： 2006/01/13 05:18pm [Hidden Post: Rating 0] （您沒有權限看這篇文章，您的威望至少需要 0） -- 作者： 龐約翰 -- 發表時間： 2006/01/13 05:52pm 高明！ 一流分析員！ 預測三與預測七尤見功力！ -- 作者： unclesam -- 發表時間： 2006/01/13 08:22pm 預測一：美元將跌 expected, especially when Euro and Yen may raise rate while USD may cut rate.  Unless, there is a strong market on wall street, the domestic market is fragile...GM, being the largest employer in US may file bankruptcy protection...it is foreseeable that USD will fall. 預測二：美息於4.5%見頂 either 4.5% - 4.75% but it really depends on the christmas sales and how Ben Bernanke is going to handle the inflation. With the home mortgage is lowering, rate should be near the peak. 預測三：恆指到達16,800-18,000點 BNP predicted 17000, in line with UBS if 預測四 is correct, it is predictable....only "If" 預測四：匯豐到達160-180港元 CSFB's TP for hsbc is 160.  However, if you compare, the stock price of HSBC is very close the EURO/Pound trend. I do not expect Euro to rise in a dramatic way, also, John Bond has a new successor, and traditionally, the rookie year after a new chairman will be fragile..coz many  "internal" reform and there will be a lot of uncertainties to investors. Interest rate will not be cut in a dramatic way in US, say remain at 4%to 4.25%, and it is not a good news to HSBC FI (household) as they are doing loans. So... 160 i s a little bit aggressive. 預測五：恆生國企指數將升至6,800-8,000點水平 68000 yes, almost for sure.  you have to believe in China in 2006. the A50 China Tracker fund should be kept an eye on... 預測六：人民幣將超越港幣 7.8 is the next milestone... and i suspect it is very near....for another revaluation... 預測七：港股下沉？ it turns from alpha trading to beta trading as there are more hedge funds in hk.  Volatility high and no actual growth. 預測八：金價衝上每盎司750美元？ could be... but it is a rather aggressive target... 6xx is what the market is expecting in 2006.  If Japan and China are going to raise their gold reserve in accordance to their Fex reserve, both need to buy a significant amount of gold.  Consider international average 8.9%, ECB level 15%, while both China and Japan are having less than 2%. 預測九：油價再次超越每桶70美元 Predictable, as you see the open interests are piling up to 200K levels again,   it just takes an excuse to trigger another rally. 預測十：樓市在農曆年後將會復甦 questionable...the rate effect won't be that significant, usually takes 3-6 months to be effective, also there is not much income growth in hk....the real estates market is questionable for a rally... however , I will look into the GZ area as they lack the BJ and SH area for a long long time... just my $0.02 -- 作者： rainbow -- 發表時間： 2006/01/14 02:37am [quote][b]下面引用由[u]unclesam[/u]在 [i]2006/01/13 08:22pm[/i] 發表的內容：[/b] 預測一：美元將跌 expected, especially when Euro and Yen may raise rate while USD may cut rate.  Unless, there is a strong market on wall street, the domestic market is fragile...GM, being the largest employer in US may file bankruptcy protection...it is foreseeable that USD will fall. [/quote] No，GM（通用汽車)不是美國最大的雇主, Common sense, people prefer Japanese cars (eg. 豐田 Toyota，本田 Honda etc) over American cars. GM 的影響不會大.  美國汽車工業從八十年代已經變弱。 美國最大的雇主是美國政府 (U.S. Government)。 不計 Public Sector, 在私營企業 (private sector)，最大的雇主是 Wal-Mart廉價大賣場。Wal-Mart 雇用廉價, 低技術的勞工。Sam Walton 的兒女繼承家庭財富。他的兒女是美國其中最富有的人。 [i]"Based in Bentonville, Arkansas, Wal-Mart is the largest private employer in the United States, with just over 1.1 million U.S. employees. Only the government hires more people in the United States. According to Wal-Mart's official site, as of June 30, 2004, the company had 1,409 Wal-Mart stores, 1,562 Supercenters, 539 Sam's Clubs, and 70 Neighborhood Markets in the United States. It rang up $256 billion in sales last year. [/i] -- 作者： unclesam -- 發表時間： 2006/01/14 09:56am [quote][b]下面引用由[u]rainbow[/u]在 [i]2006/01/13 01:37pm[/i] 發表的內容：[/b] No，GM（通用汽車)不是美國最大的雇主, Common sense, people prefer Japanese cars (eg. 豐田 Toyota，本田 Honda etc) over American cars. GM 的影響不會大.  美國汽車工業從八十年代已經變弱。 美國最大的雇 ... [/quote] Toyota's success is already predicted in early 2005. GM hired over 300K employees according to Bloomberg terminal.  majority of them are grass-root labour-intensive workers. if GM is to file bankruptcy in order to get rid of the union and the staff benefit scheme so as to make the valuation attractive...this will hurt the labour market sentiment. When jobless rate goes up and payroll drops, retail sales just as Walmart will suffer.  Less sales will also trigger Walmart to lay off worker.  As a whole, if a giant employer like GM to file bankruptcy and layoff the labor, there is only a downside outlook for the US market. For this issue, try watching Bloomberg TV, they cover this topic for several times, asking many analysts and management views.  The recent coverage was last week during the Detroit auto show. -- 作者： rainbow -- 發表時間： 2006/01/14 00:31pm Again, this only affects one region of a BIG country.  [size=5][b]United States is many many times bigger than Hong Kong.[/b][/size]  Please don't over-emphasize one part of a HUGE country as though Hollywood, Silicon Valley or Wall Street will die because 300,000 auto workers lose their jobs.   Remember Hurricane Katrina and New Orleans?  This affected only one region of a BIG country.   Kmart filed for bankruptcy a few years ago.  It is not the end of the world.  Companies filing for bankruptcy in court receive temporary relief from making repayment of debts while the company attempts to re-organize and revive its business.  Kmart has emerged from bankruptcy.  The people who bought Kmart junk bonds (a few penny on a dollar -- significant discount from face value) reaped huge profits after Kmart made a comeback.  One of the people who made a lot of money on Kmart's recovery is Edward S. Lampert. Wall Street people are smart,  they created lots of financial products  to hedge against risks.  For example, junk bonds are risky.  But there are credit derivatives to protect against default (eg. CDS - credit default swaps, CDO - collateral debt obligation, CBO - collateral bond obligation).  Likewise, the mortgage business created MBS (Mortgage Back Security) to reduce risks.  Insurance businesses minimize risks by forming Re-Insurance.   The financial markets in the U.S. are very flexible and adaptable to changes.   By the way, Hello?? Toyota IS already a success BEFORE 2005.  Its luxury line Lexus has earned the JD Power award for many years.   "Predicting" factual information is like forecasting last year's weather.   -- 作者： rainbow -- 發表時間： 2007/01/28 03:13am [quote][b]下面引用由[u]tkm[/u]在 [i]2006/01/13 05:18pm[/i] 發表的內容：[/b] (保密文章) [/quote] 哪一個, 或哪數個 2006 年預言是準確的？ -- 作者： 緣生 -- 發表時間： 2007/05/27 11:43am [quote][b]下面引用由[u]rainbow[/u]在 [i]2007/01/28 04:13pm[/i] 發表的內容：[/b] 哪一個, 或哪數個 2006 年預言是準確的？ [/quote] 筆者都想知道.... :em47: