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  http://www.nytimes.com/2005/03/25/business/25boom.html?gtb]
©½t¥Í³N¼Æ¬ã¨sªÀ -- ³N¼Æ¬ã¨s¡@¡@ 1'w5|
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©½t¥Í³N¼Æ¬ã¨sªÀ -- ³N¼Æ¬ã¨s¡@¡@ [Ib
At 1929, the stock crash leads to tightening of the interest rate (poor monetary policy by the government at that time) leads to real estate collapse, lost of liquidity in money.  Further leads to collapse of price beame prolong recession aka The Depression.-,
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All other major stock market crashes, Oil crises and hyper-inflation in 70's, Black Friday in 87, and Interent bubble in 2000, do not involved real estate collapse.  HK  had a real estate collapse after asian financial crisis.  Every one has a first hand knowledge of the impact of the real estate crash.4Z$J[
©½t¥Í³N¼Æ¬ã¨sªÀ -- ³N¼Æ¬ã¨s¡@¡@ +9R
US bubble is likely to pop by "coincidental events" of rising interest rate, decline of US dollar, China. change of  currency peg.  The safest  things to do are:.7{z&7
©½t¥Í³N¼Æ¬ã¨sªÀ -- ³N¼Æ¬ã¨s¡@¡@ e
1) sell the house for profit if you own a US house/apartment/condo.|SdI
©½t¥Í³N¼Æ¬ã¨sªÀ -- ³N¼Æ¬ã¨s¡@¡@ ^
2) do not  hold Fanie Mae nor Fredie Mac Mortgage bonds.h=@:To
©½t¥Í³N¼Æ¬ã¨sªÀ -- ³N¼Æ¬ã¨s¡@¡@ ;Za=t
3) do not hold Fanie Mae nor Fredie Mac  stock neither.Zp1N~
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4) avoid US REIT fundn
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5) hold RMB term-deposite.5,








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µoªí¤å³¹®É¶¡2005/04/03 09:30am¡@IP: ¤w³]©w«O±K[¥»¤å¦@ 15442 ¦ì¤¸²Õ]¡@ 
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  http://www.pimco.com/LeftNav/Late+Breaking+Commentary/IO/2005/IO_Jan_05.htm[pcF\
©½t¥Í³N¼Æ¬ã¨sªÀ -- ³N¼Æ¬ã¨s¡@¡@ yNW6
"...Since the primary global economic problem is a lack of what is known as aggregate demand, central banks everywhere will continue to remedy the affliction by keeping real short rates low.  Low short yields help stimulate demand by creating gradually rising inflation, and nurturing capital gains in equity, real estate, (and yes) bond markets.  In addition, the highly levered U.S. consumer and their main conduit ¡V mortgage debt ¡V require low short rates just to keep their heads above water.  Thirdly, with the Fed now implicitly on board in support of adjusting our balance of payments deficit via a depreciating currency (and a reduced deficit), low real short rates are the monetary policy tool of necessity. ..."








µoªí¤å³¹®É¶¡2005/04/03 03:28pm¡@IP: ¤w³]©w«O±K[¥»¤å¦@ 861 ¦ì¤¸²Õ]¡@ 
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  http://www.economist.com/finance/displayStory.cfm?story_id=3722894G%9=?E
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Still want to buy? i{#
©½t¥Í³N¼Æ¬ã¨sªÀ -- ³N¼Æ¬ã¨s¡@¡@ $
There are just too many articles on the house buble in the newspaper.X








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  http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-afford3apr03,0,4296610.story?coll=la-home-headlines>6








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  §Ú¨S¦³¹ªÀy¤H¶R(buy)¦a²£, ­Ó¤H¦]¯À¸û­«­n - ¨Ò¦p¬Y¤H¤£¥´ºâªø´Á¦í¬Y¦a¤è, ¯²«Î¸û¦X²z. ¬O¬ü°ê¬F©²¹ªÀy¬ü°ê¤H¦Û¸mª«·~¦w©~ (¤£¬Oª£, ¤£¬O§ë¾÷¨º¤@ºØ).pEE.Z-
©½t¥Í³N¼Æ¬ã¨sªÀ -- ³N¼Æ¬ã¨s¡@¡@ |*b_}
§Aªº gratuitious, one-size-fits-all, "¦]¬° Real Estate Bubble is Imminent" ¦Ó­n½æ(sell) house/condo/co-op etc ¬O»á¥®¸X­ì¦]. ¥h«Øij¥L¤H½æ(sell) ¦a²£, ¦³ÂI¤£­t³d¥ô.o
©½t¥Í³N¼Æ¬ã¨sªÀ -- ³N¼Æ¬ã¨s¡@¡@ 0q2
Âø»x, ³ø¯Èªº¤å³¹¤£¯à taken literally, ¦]¬°´CÅé­Ó¤H·N¨£¤£¤@©w¾A¦X¨C­Ó¤H.  ¤å³¹ªº·N¨£¥u¯à§@°Ñ¦Ò, ¤ñ¸û - °OªÌªº·N¨£¤£¬O°]°È¸t¸g, §_«h³o¤@¯Z´CÅé°OªÌ¤@¦­¤wµo¹F, ÁÙ­n°µ¥´¤u¶Ü? ¥~°ê¤H¶R¬ü°ê¦a²£¦³¥L­Ì¨p¤H²z¥Ñ, ¥L­Ì²{ª÷¥æ©ö, ¥i¥HªÖ©w¦a²£¦³support. gfUs^








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  http://www.genre.com/sharedfile/pdf/ReflectionsMarch2005.pdfrro








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