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 * 文章主題： Warren Buffett on Dollar (from Forbes) 不分頁顯示此文章  儲存此頁為檔案  本文章有問題，傳送短訊息報告給版主  加到我的最愛&關注本文章  顯示可列印的版本  把本文章打包郵寄  把本文章加到我的最愛  傳送本頁面給朋友   
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 短訊息　查看　搜尋　通訊錄　引用　回覆文章回覆　只看我　[樓 主]
  Warren Buffett's vote of no confidence in U.S. fiscal policies is up to $20 billion. The dollar has fallen savagely against the euro for the past three years, and the trade deficit is running $55 billion a month. Is the currency rout over? Can the trade deficit be fixed with a rise in interest rates or an upward revaluation of the Chinese currency? Warren Buffett, the world's most visible dollar bear, says the answer to both these questions is no. His bet against the dollar, reported at $12 billion in his last annual report (for Dec. 31, 2003), has gotten all the bigger. Now his Berkshire Hathaway has a $20 billion bet in favor of the euro, the pound and six other foreign currencies.2
©緣生術數研究社 -- 術數研究　　 l
Full story at http://www.forbes.com/forbes/2005/0110/036.html?_requestid=8628@->L=)
©緣生術數研究社 -- 術數研究　　 >;:O_
I cannot post the full copyright material.  It worths a read for your intevestment next year.T]o^








發表文章時間2004/12/25 11:04am　IP: 已設定保密[本文共 930 位元組]　 
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 短訊息　查看　搜尋　通訊錄　引用　回覆文章回覆　只看我　[第 2 樓]
  Warren Buffett on Dollar 2004上半年加碼放空部位70億美元,其一部位價格1.2175~1.2300(euro):
2004下半年加碼放空部位10億美元,其一部位價格1.2000~1.2300(euro)<*<








發表文章時間2004/12/27 01:58pm　IP: 已設定保密[本文共 184 位元組]　 
 muffin 




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 短訊息　查看　搜尋　通訊錄　引用　回覆文章回覆　只看我　[第 3 樓]
  There are more fundamental newsbites from various "sources"b}"`
©緣生術數研究社 -- 術數研究　　 VRQ`wB
1) Japan's companies are done cleaning their books.  They unwinded their cross holdings foreign investors.  They pay down their debt and start accumulating cashes.  They shift their production lines to China for cost saving.  In aggregate, Japanese companies, including banks, are in better shape.  However, Japan Government is still in very bad shape to issue so many bonds.s\
©緣生術數研究社 -- 術數研究　　 )WYm
2) Australia had the first wave on Olympic.  The second wave is the China boom and raw material hunger.  The oil price is down now and various indexes, new building, GDP growth, ... etc is starting to slow down.QDRfnd
©緣生術數研究社 -- 術數研究　　 r=
3) No breaking news on Europe.Ta
©緣生術數研究社 -- 術數研究　　 `g
4) Bush wants to devalue their debt out by inflation.!1?*"D
©緣生術數研究社 -- 術數研究　　 0,]tHI
5) Japan Government is the sole net buyer of US Treasuries.  c
©緣生術數研究社 -- 術數研究　　 "
6) During the last year, China government buys enough Treasuries  without increasing the stake.  They shift to MBS in US housing.  People says US real estate is a bubble for the past wo years and it is still rising.m
©緣生術數研究社 -- 術數研究　　 iB+3$W
So it is up to you to decide how to translate these macro observations into your investment ideas.hN]?)9








發表文章時間2004/12/28 01:55am　IP: 已設定保密[本文共 1217 位元組]　 
 0to1 
 勳章: 緣生之友會員,謝謝您對緣生站的支持!




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 短訊息　查看　搜尋　通訊錄　引用　回覆文章回覆　只看我　[第 4 樓]
  集思廣益!Qz








發表文章時間2004/12/28 07:54pm　IP: 已設定保密[本文共 33 位元組]　 
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 勳章: 緣生之友會員,謝謝您對緣生站的支持!

 

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 短訊息　查看　搜尋　通訊錄　引用　回覆文章回覆　只看我　[第 5 樓]
  The safest investment strategy is :zI
Monthly stock buying plan from your favor bank on any one of the following:>b:7/H
0005, 0011, or 2800.(
©緣生術數研究社 -- 術數研究　　 Mk=2
Recommand monthly deposite of $3000 so that the $50 fee is just  1.67% of your investment.  Please also select a bank with no custodian charge and minimal fees.  They will eat your return witouth mercy.0fm@B
©緣生術數研究社 -- 術數研究　　 in;e8&
The advanturous one can try some of your piggy cash on EWJ at AMEX.  It is an iShares tracking Japan Nikkie 225 Index.g3DH
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=5y&s=EWJ&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=%5EN225=ik&P_
©緣生術數研究社 -- 術數研究　　 4&
If you believe in Japan recovery and devaluation of US dollar, it is a reasonable bet.  I only know there are iShare Korea and iShare Taiwan at HK Exchange and they are very inactively traded.  You will have to try your luck at your favor choice of US brokerage.pw;hv
©緣生術數研究社 -- 術數研究　　 {'2c~
我可以說起手七隻萬子當然要做清一色,但唔包生仔.5/P








發表文章時間2004/12/30 01:10am　IP: 已設定保密[本文共 927 位元組]　 
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 短訊息　查看　搜尋　通訊錄　引用　回覆文章回覆　只看我　[第 6 樓]
  There is one more angle to look at the market.  Here is what Bill Gross says:KoU
http://www.pimco.com/LeftNav/Late+Breaking+Commentary/IO/2004/IO+December+2004.htm6i
©緣生術數研究社 -- 術數研究　　 Y6k\G
In summary:|q #H
Dollar depreciation now, and Chinese Yuan revaluation as soon as possible is the easiest first step to rebalance an imbalanced U.S./global economy.  Dirty float” is and likely will remain synonymous with Japanese forex policy."
©緣生術數研究社 -- 術數研究　　 Z)"
For US Bond investors, his recommandations are:"oX
1) As long as the Euro strengthens against the dollar, there is reason to favor German Bunds instead of U.S. Treasuries.  I would only be leery of Bunds when and if China revalues.vT-4
2) Buy TIPS.WFb
3) Be careful with U.S. Treasuries.  A deteriorating balance of payments deficit may actually have a positive effect leading to lower interest rates until a large creditor turns tail.(B
©緣生術數研究社 -- 術數研究　　 0z
------------?
The above is only useful for US bond investors.  If you believe in HK peg, you are welcomed to follow.  A highly sepeculative bet is to buy long U.S. Treasuries and sell it right before the change of trend.|/5_
©緣生術數研究社 -- 術數研究　　 =JzE
If you would go to read the actual porfolio of the China and Japan central Banks, you will find that Japan has been buying US Treasuries only and its size is growing forever.  On the other hands, China net balance on US Treasuries is flat for the last year even its is accumulating US trade surplus.  China is channelling the excess to MBS.  That means the Chinese do realize the long-term implication of US trade deflicit.  They are diversifying.  They know Yuen will float, just like Us drop again Yen in 80s.  It is not IF but a matter of WHEN.  They are planning their move and They will change the ped of Yuen some time in the future.  They will anticipate the effect of their move.  All that means that they may switch move asset to other currencies.  Thus, you can work out a strategy from its implications too.  AdIs
©緣生術數研究社 -- 術數研究　　 d
My opinion is that China would have started a process to move away from US peg gradually if Greenspan and Snow had not talked down the dollow in the last few month.  Therefore, a fix deposite in RMB is not a bad idea.Jl








發表文章時間2004/12/30 10:05am　IP: 已設定保密[本文共 2231 位元組]　 

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